“The trend is your friend until the end when it bends” –Ed Seykota The second quarter of 2026 delivered a striking reversal from the difficult start to the year. After the S&P 500 fell roughly 5% in the first quarter — weighed down by tariff uncertainty, persistent inflation, and an unchanged Federal Reserve — markets […]
Experience is simply the name we give our mistakes
“Experience is simply the name we give our mistakes” –Oscar Wilde The first quarter of 2026 was a reminder that markets rarely move in a straight line. The year began with investors balancing solid underlying corporate earnings against a growing list of macroeconomic concerns. Trade policy uncertainty resurfaced early in the quarter, inflation remained somewhat […]
Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future
“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future” –Niels Henrick David Boher The stock market continued to rally during the third quarter. There are many factors contributing to the market advance, yet there are also data points that signal caution. Hence, our focus has been on mitigating near-term risks while also focusing on […]
The surest test of discipline is its absence
“The surest test of discipline is its absence” –Clara Barton The stock market rallied strongly in the second quarter as uncertainty surrounding tariffs moderated. Equities fell sharply in early April following President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement causing the administration to quickly postpone the implementation of most of the proposed tariffs as the economic ramifications are […]
Whatever is produced in haste goes hastily to waste
“Whatever is produced in haste goes hastily to waste” –Saadi Shirazi Regardless of political affiliation, clients are watching the activity surrounding President Trump’s new administration and asking our opinion on a broad array of topics. In this update we’ll focus our comments on the actions most likely to have an impact on economic activity and […]
Success is achieved and maintained by those who try and keep trying
“Success is achieved and maintained by those who try and keep trying” –W Clement Stone As we enter the New Year we have a cautious market outlook, and we will attempt to summarize the main factors influencing our thinking in this note. This does not mean the stock market will decline in 2025 (our crystal […]