Quarterly Letters

“It all comes down to interest rates. As an investor, all you’re doing is putting up a lump-sum payment for a future cash flow.” –Ray Dalio Last January most market prognosticators were predicting declining bond yields by the Fall. Instead, the opposite is happening as the anticipated recession has yet to emerge and economic data […]

“The triumph can’t be had without the struggle” –Wilma Glodean Rudolph Actions taken by the Federal Reserve to curtail inflationary pressures are showing signs of progress. Annualized inflation has dropped to 4% from over 9% in 2022. More rate increases are likely in the coming months as the Fed’s targeted inflation rate is 2%. Equity […]

“Storms make the oak grow deeper roots” –George Herbert We’ve decided to deviate from the typical format of our quarterly letter to explain the circumstances that brought down Silicon Valley Bank on March 10th. The speed at which the crisis emerged injected substantial fear into financial stocks causing many to question whether we were about […]

“Success is achieved and maintained by those who try and keep trying” –W Clement Stone While investing is a forward looking activity, the beginning of a New Year provides a moment to reflect upon what transpired in 2022 versus what we initially predicted. We were correct identifying the key themes as a hawkish Federal Reserve […]

“All you need is the plan, the road map, and the courage to press on to your destination” –Earl Nightingale The theme for 2022, which we identified in January, was one of a Federal Reserve intent on tightening to fight inflation. Year-to-date the Fed has raised rates five times and the Fed Funds rate has […]

“If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favorable” –Lucius Annaeus Seneca We often compare sailing to investing. It is in choppy waters that a sailor’s mettle is tested. In this note, we’ll highlight the items we are monitoring as we navigate the first economically driven bear market since […]